This core theme (CT) consists of three workpages: WP10 – Improving IAM-ESM land use representation, WP11/12 – Improving reduced-complexity carbon-cycle and climate models, and WP13 – Assessment of robust and resilient climate action.
This core theme involves understanding and improving coupling between different types of models, building emulators so that the results of complex models can be accurately and quickly predicted in order to design climate scenarios. We will improve the representation of land use processes relating to mitigation policy, and will coordinate experiments to assess their efficacy. We will coordinate experiments to assess climate-carbon feedback uncertainty and represent these uncertainties in simple climate models. Finally, we will design robust mitigition policy considering the findings of the wider project.
We seek to improve the representation of key processes relevant for land based mitigation in both complex and simple models, improving our understanding of the robustness of different mitigation strategies. We will conduct a suite of uncertainty experiments to assess ESM response to carbon, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. We will build a novel, open source modular simple climate model which will be used to assess uncertainties in mitigation strategy response. We will assess consistency in the representation of carbon stocks across different model classes (Earth System Models, simple models and integrated assessment models), and will use this improved representation to design and better understand mitigation scenario choices.
Improving processes realism in ESMs
WP1: Atmosphere processes
WP2: Land processes
WP3: Ocean, marine biogeochemistry and cryosphere processes
Enabling and exploring new couplings between Earth system components
WP5+WP5: Coupled CH4 cycle
WP6+WP7: Coupled Nitrogen cycle
WP8+WP9: Coupled Dynamical Ice sheets
Connecting with IAMs
WP10: Improving IAM-ESM land use representation
WP11+WP12: Improving reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle models
WP13: Assesment of robust climate mitigation options
Outreach, knowledge exchange and project management
WP14: Operationalisation of the Paris Agreement: Bringing policy and science together and sharing knoledge with the public
WP15: Education and vocational training
WP16: Project and data
WP17: Ethics requirements
Cross-cutting activity 2 - Coordinated and demonstration simulations
Cross-cutting activity 1 - Model evaluation
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (Norway)
I am a research scientist specialising in Climate Scenario design and modeling uncertainty at CICERO in Oslo, Norway. I have previously worked at CERFACS in Toulouse, France and NCAR in the US. I coordinate multi-model parameter uncertainty experiments and climate model emulation platforms.
I co-coordinate CT3, which contains elements of climate projection uncertainty and simple climate model design, including idealised experiments to assess simple and complex model response to emissions driven climate change – and designs strategies for how those experiments relate to policy guidance.
Director of Research, Grantham Institute-Imperial College - London (UK)
I am Director of Research at the Grantham Institute and Lecturer at Imperial College London. I research how our understanding of how the planet works can be connected to society and integrated in policy. I am a long-standing contributor to key science-policy publications such as reports by the UN Environmental Program (UNEP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
I co-coordinate CT3 with Ben Sanderson, and co-lead within WP13 research activities that will integrate the latest Earth system science knowledge into scientific tools for policy assessment, called Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). I also co-lead the ESM2025 activities that co-produce and translate new scientific insights from ESM2025 for policy and decision makers.