WP 13 - Assessment of robust and resilient climate action

This work package (WP) will capitalize on the new insights and simple climate modelling tools developed in other parts of the project and establish a link between these Earth system science tools and tools for policy analysis known as Integrated Assessment Models or IAMs. In a first task, the most up-to-date Earth system information as captured in a new open-source Earth system emulator will be linked to a leading IAM. This linkage, together with insights about how measures to sequester carbon on land are affected by Earth system feedbacks, will then be used to assess the effectiveness and potential of different land-based mitigation options. Finally, in a last task, policies that are robust against the uncertainties and potential variations in the effectiveness of mitigation options will be developed in pursuit of identifying climate resilient policies.

For Earth system knowledge to effectively support the implementation and operationalisation of the Paris Agreement, it is essential that new insights are translated into information that connects more directly to policy needs. In this work package, we will ensure that disciplinary insights on how the coupled Earth system responds to human disturbances and mitigation measures are leveraged and integrated into the development of pathways of effective and resilient climate action under the Paris Agreement. We will integrate Earth system insights into state-of-the-art policy analysis tools, known as Integrated Assessment Models or IAMs. Specifically, we will assess the implications for effective climate mitigation of uncertainties and variations in the Earth system response to land-use mitigation options, and explore how this can contribute to strategies for robust and resilient decision making.

Intitutions involved: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany), Imperial College London (UK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria), CICERO (Norway) and University of Melbourne (Australia).

 

WP Leaders

Elmar Kriegler

Elmar Kriegler

Head of Research Dep. 3 (Transformation Pathways), PIK - Potsdam (Germany)

I am Head of the Research Department “Transformation Pathways” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Professor for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change at the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences at the University of Potsdam. My core expertise is in integrated assessment of climate change, scenario analysis and decision analysis. I have coordinated several international integrated assessment modelling projects and have been a lead author in several IPCC Reports.

In ESM2025

I am co-lead of the WP13 research activities that will integrate the latest Earth system science knowledge and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and I coordinates PIK’s contribution to the work packages 13 and 14.

Joeri Rogelj

Joeri Rogelj

Director of Research, Grantham Institute-Imperial College - London (UK)

I am Director of Research at the Grantham Institute and Lecturer at Imperial College London. I research how our understanding of how the planet works can be connected to society and integrated in policy. I am a long-standing contributor to key science-policy publications such as reports by the UN Environmental Program (UNEP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In ESM2025

I co-coordinate CT3 with Ben Sanderson, and co-lead within WP13 research activities that will integrate the latest Earth system science knowledge into scientific tools for policy assessment, called Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). I also co-lead the ESM2025 activities that co-produce and translate new scientific insights from ESM2025 for policy and decision makers.

Milestones & Delievrables

Project start
Start

MS13.1 – Month 20

Testing the integration of OS-MAGICC (version alpha) in OpenSCM.

MS13.2 – Month 26

Testing the integration of OS-MAGICC (version beta) in OpenSCM.

MS13.3 – Month 36

Operational integration of OS-MAGICC (Task 12.3) in OpenSCM.

MS13.4 – Month 36

Coupling of OS-MAGICC in PIK IAM through OpenSCM including interfacing of MAgPIE/LPJml and OS-MAGICC for key carbon-cycle specific variables.

MS13.5 – Month 42

Integration of OS-MAGICC functionality in Scenario Explorer through OpenSCM.

MS13.6 – Month 42

Preliminary information on land-use mitigation integration available for stakeholder interaction and outreach.

MS13.7 – Month 42

Preliminary information on robust mitigation action for operationalising and achieving the Paris Agreement available for stakeholder interaction and outreach.

D13.1  – Feb 2025

Report on demonstration of improved integrated assessment of the land-use mitigation options in light of new land-use representation in ESMs.

D13.2  – May 2025

Report on robust mitigation action for operationalising and achieving the Paris Agreement.

End
Project end